Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated October 13, 2026.
Methodology →
2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$15.5M Vol · 14% to win nomination
79%
Jon Ossoff
$13.4M Vol · 16% to win nomination
75%
Gavin Newsom
$28.0M Vol · 14% to win nomination
70%
Josh Shapiro
$10.2M Vol · 6% to win nomination
63%
Pete Buttigieg
$12.2M Vol · 5% to win nomination
62%
Kamala Harris
$14.0M Vol · 7% to win nomination
58%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Marco Rubio
$10.8M Vol · 16% to win nomination
56%
J.D. Vance
$15.8M Vol · 45% to win nomination
47%
Yes · wins
No · loses
Your stake$
Effective odds (after fees + slippage)
1
Loses Primary (refund)
Wins Primary
2
General Election
Wins General
Loses General